
We revise down 1Q18 and 2Q18 shipments of iPhone X to 18mn units and 13mn units, respectively, lower than market consensus of 20-30mn and 15-20mn units. We expect iPhone X will go to end of life (EOL) around mid-2018 and that total life cycle shipments will be around 62mn units, lower than our previous forecast of 80mn units.
Kuo cites two reasons for weaker than expected demand in the China. First, consumers are waiting 24-26 months before replacing their smartphone, that's longer that the previous average of 14-16 months in Q4 2016. Second is a desire for larger displays. Many Chinese consumers recognize that the iPhone X offers less usable screen space than the 5.5-inch iPhone Plus, especially since many popular Chinese apps aren't compatible with the notched design of the iPhone X yet.
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