Delays in production and the November release of the iPhone X smartphone will likely push back the expected upgrade super cycle until 2018, reports KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.The analyst believes that Apple will ship about 35 million more iPhone in 2018 than 2017.
The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.
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